ࡱ> Y( x/ 0DArialr Newmantth|  0DTimes New Romantth|  0 DCourier Newmantth|  01@ .  @n?" dd@  @@`` xp;'()*+,56789:=>?@CDSrTUV[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopvwxyz{|}~ 0AA@ʚ;ʚ;g4GdGd,k|  0ppp@ <4dddd@w 0tdh|  <4BdBd@x 0t0___PPT10 ppd___PPT9F>9&?  %MhGender and women s rights analysis of EPAs: Tanzania55(& AHolger Seebens University of Gttingen hseebens@uni-goettingen.de, " IntroductionEPA likely to have far reaching consequences for Tanzanian economy Sure outcomes Expansion of market size Increased competition on EAC domestic markets Reduction of tariff revenues Uncertain outcomes Economic integration Job creation Growth with equity\QZdZZ6ZQd6r9 IntroductionWomen highly visible in the economy  thus women are going to be affected, too What areas? Employment and earnings, including agricultural, formal and informal sectors Consumption, concerning price changes of consumption goods and women s budget Public sector, regarding provision of public services and infrastructure investments @[" [#BGender and trade  stylized facts""(>Job creation  trade liberal. benefits women if abundant unskilled labor poses comparative advantage textile and electronics exports are increasing NTAE production and agro-food processing expands exports in service sector expand Job displacement through cheap imports squeezing female intensive sectors agricultural commercialization of female intensive crops and accompanying women s weak control over resources l0ZZZZ $BGender and trade  stylized facts""(|Earnings Trade liberalization has not contributed to closing the earnings gap Consumption Products purchased by women may become cheaper (potential for inequality increasing effects) Control over resources Women have lost control over resources as a result of agricultural commercialization Negative implications for child development Female income contributed to child welfare  ZEZ Z]ZZZZ E ]tB Note on data quality4Poor state of data availability renders final assessment difficult Data largely lacking on detailed female employment structure, needed to assess sectors of employment supplied quantities quality of labor Data on production structure and inputs used largely missing Different data sources highly inconsistentBZ;ZhZ;hC(@Background on Tanzania s economy!!(Average per capita income: 320 US$ High rates of poverty: 33.3 percent fall below poverty line Comparatively high literacy rate (69%) Low level of private investment (18%) Poor capital endowmentZD)@Background on Tanzania s economy!!(Non-agricultural sector reveals highest growth rates  mainly due to increasing mineral exports Significant and negative trade balance: - US$ 2,928 million Important trade partners: exports to Asia (25%), EU (24%), Africa (18%) imports from Africa (26%), Asia (25%), and EU (19%) Most important exports: Agriculture: coffee, tobacco, cotton, tea Industrial products: minerals, manufactured goods Other: fish, horticulture Dependency on primary exportsPPPbPPvPPbvn7Women in the economyc89% of women counted as economically active Very low participation in manufacturing and wage labor market (6.1% of women as opposed to 15.3% of men) Major areas: agriculture (particularly staple foods and vegetables), trade, food processing, services, textiles Women are overrepresented in subsistence production, informal labor market, micro-enterprisesdPdv;Women in the economy_Limited access to resources such as land and credit aggravate business start-ups and response to price changes Lacking knowledge and training aggravates increases in productivity Significant time constraints due to household work (caring for dependants, collecting firewood, fetching water, household chores): women, 3.6 hours, against men,1.2 hours ``4Trade and growthEmpirical studies tend to support claim that trade spurs growth, however, not unconditionally Some prerequisites: sufficiently developed infrastructure (electricity, roads, water supply), sound financial markets that allow access to credits at all volumes (including micro-credits) at reasonable interest rates, sufficiently developed social sector that supplies a sound base of human capital in terms of education and health, HrZ9ZoZr9DrI { r 5Trade and growthinstitutional framework that guarantees stability, credible commitments and low levels of corruption, access to information on trade and production opportunities, the provision of training to develop necessary skills Diversification into and of manufacturing tends to support trade and growth Examples: (South-)East Asia, Lesotho, Mauritius  Modern economic growth characterized by shift of importance away from agriculture towards industry and services.ZZ<e <  r8Situation in TanzaniaWeakly developed infrastructure Firms face extra cost when investing in supply of water, energy and transport Poor access to financial markets Firms indicate financing bottlenecks as important constraint for upscaling investment Poorly developed human capital base Even though literacy rate is high, weak supply of secondary or higher educated labor, wide spread drop out rates of working force render Tanzania a high cost environment  ZNZ!ZVZ$ZZZ N!V$ W5*What happens if EPA meets such conditions?"Supply response of Tanzanian private sector most likely low  no substantial expansion of the export sector (if domestic investment constraints pose to be major brake on expansion and diversification) Indications: weak supply response to EBA and AGOA (even after considering rules of origin) Cheap imports likely to quickly fill market gaps not served by local producers Aggravating diversification of manufacturing sector Local production focused on domestic market, even if protected, significant short-run expansion not likelynsZ4ZkZ>.+4kt:EPA and TanzaniamMany areas in which Tanzania production is currently strong appear to be kept under protection, e.g. agriculture, food processing, textiles Areas regarding intermediates, technical equipment and a wide range of goods in textiles are going to be liberalized (many items have already zero tariff rates) Furthermore, living animals, some food items, to name only a fewnZnX,General expected impact of EPA(Exports No significant change expected due to EPA (in the short run) No significant job creation, neither for men, nor for women (in the short run) Imports Impacts including job losses to be expected in agriculture, processed food including meat, charcoal, and potentially textiles and manufacturing in general EPA likely to substantially aggravate Tanzania s expansion into manufacturing Public revenues Hypothetical tax losses about US$ 25 millionP PPP PPP- P  -Z6#Liberalized goods critical to women$$(Crops Oilseeds, millet and sorghum, roots and tubers, grains (rye, barley, oats), fruits (e.g. cherries, apricots, dates), chicory Meat Chicken meat, fish (e.g. smoked fish excluding salmon and herrings, fillets, dried or salted) Processed food Rye and rice flour, starch, several forms of worked grains Manufactured goods Charcoal , items used in the household Other sectors difficult to determine as female involvement often unknown P}PP^PP;PPpPP}^;qY-JImpacts: women s income opportunities&&(Crops Currently, EU is a net importer for many goods (most oilseeds except sunflower seeds, grains, roots and tubers, chicory) However, if imports were to increase, income generating opportunities of 1.5 million women are potentially affected Meat and fish Cheap imports of chicken meat could potentially squeeze women from the market Cheap imports of fish could destroy jobs for women if prepared fish imported by the EU is substituted for local production nPPPPP[.JImpacts: women s income opportunities&&(Processed food Women involved in grain milling such that cheap imports of rye and rice flour could affect women in this sector Manufactured goods Charcoal important income generating activity for women, cheap import may displace female employment General The development of modern supply chains potentially spurred by the availability of cheap consumer goods (e.g. fish, meat, rye and rice flour, fruits) may displace female employment in the retail sector Current status quo likely to be cemented PqPPeP PPp e \/Impacts: ConsumptionMajor areas concerning women Food, as women are responsible to provide the household with food Energy, which imposes time constraint on women as they are largely responsible for collecting firewood and fetching water Meat and fish Women as consumers may benefit from cheaper meat However, effect not equally distributed among women from poor and wealthier households Charcoal, gas cooking facilities Availability of charcoal and cooking with gas could save women s time Here again, only to those who can afford itPPPP"PrP!r<=Can women entrepreneurs/ farmers respond to price incentives?>>(PAnswer depends on a number of different factors: Women particularly engaged in high risk production (small-scale agriculture and micro-enterprises) Women have limited control over productive assets (such as land), aggravating investment Lacking market information and business training Poor access to credits and credit volumes to small$1Z ZQ>&Can women respond to price incentives?''(Sexual harassment Time constraints through household chores and provision of care Limited mobility caused be need to care for children Need to take care over subsistence production Hence: even if expansion of exports were to materialize, women are likely to not benefit proportionally from the expansion Women are more likely to benefit, if female intensive manufacturing and NTAE production increases FZZZ]0Public spendingGTotal revenue amounts to 15% of GDP Total spending: 27% of GDP High dependency on ODA: 46% of total government expenditure derived from ODA Tariff income from EU: 0.4% of GDP Budget deficit estimated to increase to 9.2% in fiscal year 2008/2009 Tax reform recently implemented, thus limiting the leeway to increase tax revenuesHH^1Public spendingStructure of public spending: 9.2% on education 6.2% on health (has recently increased) 6.9% on energy, transport and telecommunication 44.6% on administration_2Revenue losses due to EPAEstimated revenue loss: US$ 25 million translating into 1.2% of total revenues Real number likely to be larger due to potential trade diversion Number need to be interpreted in view of current household budget deficit of 9.2% huge numbers of issues where public investment is needed&bb`3VPublic spending  where are women affected?,,(<Education Gender gaps in secondary and tertiary education Significant drop out rates of girls in primary education Expansion of education difficult if free primary schooling maintained Health High maternal mortality rate High rates of child mortality (under 5 mortality rate at 12.6%) Need to care for sick children` ZZZ|Z |a4VPublic spending  where are women affected?,,(Time saving infrastructure Water supply and energy can significantly reduce women s occupation with household chores Improved transport system allows women to market their produce Clean drinking water reduces incidence of water borne diseases (o8 ConclusionsNo significant short run creation of employment Cementing of status quo dependency on primary exports roles of women No large scale destruction of jobs given status quo EU export structure There are important exceptions however, e.g. poultry meat Some consumption goods have potential inequality increasing effects Cuts in public spending worrisome, even though, absolute cuts not largetIZ.ZHZ:ZZI.H:/)*+67:=?L T(U)c,d-e.f/g0h1i2j3k4l5m6p7q8s9u:w;P   0` 33` Sf3f` 33g` f` www3PP` ZXdbmo` \ғ3y`Ӣ` 3f3ff` 3f3FKf` hk]wwwfܹ` ff>>\`Y{ff` R>&- {p_/̴>?" dd@,|?" dd@   " @ ` n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>> :2(    6B|   `} |  ^*Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten+ +"  0E|   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Conclusions  Fonts UsedDesign Template Slide Titles _0PersonalPersonal  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root EntrydO)Current UserSummaryInformation(PowerPoint Document( DocumentSummaryInformation8